Last week offered something relatively rare: the economy lost speed without losing its footing. This is due to moderating wages and steady business activity that have kept corporate profits healthy and pushed U.S. stock markets near all-time highs.
The main risk continues to be inflation, which is still above the Federal Reserve’s target. Tensions in the Middle East are continuing to keep oil prices elevated, making rate cuts unlikely anytime soon. That argues for staying invested in well-run companies with reliable profits, with some exposure to bonds and assets that hold value when rates stay high.
Below is a look at the forces behind last week’s moves and what to look for in the coming week.
Stock Index Performance
What the Data Is Telling Us
The Economy Is Still Growing, Just More Quietly. The services sector expanded in April, though new orders dropped sharply, signaling softer demand ahead. First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2% annual rate, carried largely by business investment as consumer spending pulled back. Overall growth is moderating, not reversing.
The Job Market Is Cooling, Not Cracking. April added 115,000 jobs, nearly double consensus estimates, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Wage growth came in at 3.6% annually, slightly below forecasts and close to ideal for the Fed: it’s enough to support consumers without feeding inflation.
Inflation Is Keeping the Fed’s Hands Tied. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, stands at 3.2%, above its 2% target, and higher energy prices pushed headline CPI inflation to 3.3% in March. Policymakers held rates steady in April, and some officials warn that policy may need to stay restrictive well into 2027. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week near 4.4%, reflecting a market that has accepted that rate cuts will come more slowly than expected.
The Week Ahead
The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday, May 12, is the most important release of the week. It will show whether the recent rise in energy and services prices is fading or becoming entrenched. A softer reading would ease pressure on the Fed; a hotter one would reinforce fears that rate cuts remain a long way off, pushing yields higher and weighing on stocks.
The other dynamic to track is how markets absorb the reality of a prolonged restrictive rate environment. Last week’s strong jobs report has pushed that expectation further into 2026. Rising long-term yields would put pressure on rate-sensitive areas such as small caps, real estate, and speculative growth stocks, while steady yields would give the rally room to broaden.
Developments in the conflict between the United States and Iran remain the most direct risk factor, feeding into oil prices and the Fed’s rate decisions. As the two countries continue to negotiate a peace deal, markets are watching closely to see whether relief will come for oil prices.
On the market side, the key question is breadth. An advance that extends beyond mega-cap technology, AI, and semiconductors into other sectors would signal broader market health and reduce concentration risk.
We are monitoring these developments closely, and we are here if you have questions. And as always, if you have general questions about your portfolio, don’t hesitate to reach out.
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U.S. markets reached record highs in April, driven by strong corporate earnings and enthusiasm around AI. Investors largely looked past elevated inflation, rising yields, and persistent tensions in the Middle East, marking a sharp reversal from a difficult first quarter.
However, beneath the surface, a more cautious story emerged. The broader economy is slowing, and inflation is proving stubborn. Core measures are easing, but higher energy costs are keeping overall readings above the Federal Reserve’s target, leaving policymakers on hold with no clear case to cut or tighten.
Below is a look at how the major indexes performed in April and the key drivers behind the moves.
Major U.S. Stock Indices
Mega-cap technology and semiconductors accounted for most of the index gains, as investors rewarded companies with clear AI monetization and accelerating profits. Few other sectors kept pace.
That narrowness has raised valuation risks, leaving markets more exposed to any setback in earnings, policy, or geopolitical developments heading into mid-2026.
Overall, in April:
Economic and Market Overview
The Macro Backdrop. The U.S. economy remained solid in April but continued to slow, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth tracking at 2% for Q1. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) continued to ease gradually, but rising oil prices pushed headline inflation above 3.5%, complicating the case for rate cuts. At its late-April meeting, the Fed held steady and signaled it wants more convincing progress on inflation before easing. Rates are unlikely to come down soon.
The Economy’s Complicated Dynamics. The labor market held steady, with the latest data showing that hiring topped expectations and unemployment changed little. Business investment is increasingly directed toward AI infrastructure and automation, supporting productivity but not widespread growth. Consumer sentiment fell to a record low as households remained focused on the inflation fallout from the Middle East conflict.
Energy, Inflation, and Rates. The tension between rising oil prices and markets’ hopes for rate cuts remained the dominant story in April. Brent crude spiked to $126 per barrel as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continued to disrupt supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing headline inflation higher and reducing the likelihood of near-term easing. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.40%, its highest level of the year, as investors reassessed both inflation risk and worries over the U.S. fiscal outlook.
U.S. Stocks and the AI Rally. U.S. equities had an exceptional month. The S&P 500 crossed 7,000 for the first time, finishing April at a record high of 7,209.01. Earnings primarily drove this gain: With only Nvidia’s results still to come, Q1 earnings for the Magnificent Seven are expected to grow 45.7% year-over-year on 24.6% higher revenues.
Commodities Rally. Commodities rose broadly, with energy up 7.7% and industrial metals gaining on strong demand linked to data center and AI infrastructure spending. The commodity rally also supported shares of energy and materials companies while putting upward pressure on inflation expectations and Treasury yields.
Keeping Perspective
April brought plenty of market-moving headlines, but the underlying fundamentals of long-term investing continue to hold up.
Know that we are staying focused on your long-term plan and keeping an eye on what’s driving the markets now. If you have questions about recent market shifts or simply want to talk through your strategy, do not hesitate to reach out. We are here to be a resource for you.
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Last week, leading stock indices held their ground near record levels, resilient but rangebound. Surging retail sales and a re-acceleration in manufacturing confirmed the U.S. expansion is intact, while gradual cooling in the job market kept Federal Reserve rate cuts in play for later this year.
The economy looks solid, but policy uncertainty is rising. So, with that in mind, here’s a brief overview of how the major indexes finished, what drove numbers last week, and what to look forward to in the week ahead.
Stock Index Performance
Macro Picture
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire shows strain. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreed to in early April continued to fray throughout last week, with the latest peace talks in Pakistan appearing to hit a dead end over the weekend. The Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, due to action by the United States and Iran, making the conflict a potential flashpoint for markets.
Fed’s future direction in question. Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing to become the next Fed Chair caught Wall Street’s attention. His message was pointed: the Fed needs a stricter grip on inflation and should wean itself off the balance-sheet tools deployed heavily post-COVID. Markets read that as a higher-for-longer signal on rates, not a crisis, but a meaningful shift in the policy backdrop that could quietly reshape the investing environment in the months ahead.
Consumer spending leads the way. March retail sales jumped 1.7% in a single month, well above expectations, with broad-based strength across spending categories. Factory activity reinforced the picture, with the Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) hitting a four-year high. Together, these two data points indicate the U.S. expansion is intact and gaining momentum into Q2, though stronger growth keeps the Fed on hold for longer.
The Week Ahead
The Fed’s rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference following the April 28-29 meeting will headline the week’s agenda. No rate move is expected, so the focus will shift entirely to Powell’s tone. A hawkish message, flagging inflation risks and pushing cuts further out, could pressure growth stocks and nudge yields higher.
The other highlight of the week is that five of the Magnificent Seven will report earnings, with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft posting results on Wednesday (April 29), followed by Apple on Thursday (April 30). Expectations are high. Investors will focus on cloud growth, AI capital spending, and whether margins are holding up. Strong results and confident AI commentary could validate current valuations and keep the rally alive. However, cautious guidance or any softness in revenue growth could trigger a pullback, even if the macro backdrop stays supportive.
Markets rarely move in straight lines, and weeks like this one are a good reminder of why staying informed matters. We are keeping an eye on how things are moving and are here to be a resource for you.
If anything in this update raises questions or if you’d just like to touch base on your strategy, reach out anytime.
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U.S. stocks rallied broadly last week. Solid early earnings reports and signs of easing tensions in the Middle East gave investors plenty to feel good about, and even a bump in March inflation wasn’t enough to dampen markets. Bond yields stayed relatively steady, and the Federal Reserve still looks unlikely to cut rates anytime soon.
However, tensions reignited over the weekend in the Strait of Hormuz, serving as a reminder that easing tensions in the region are not always guaranteed.
Here’s where the major indexes landed and what to keep an eye on this week.
Stock Index Performance
Behind the Numbers
Geopolitics brought a sigh of relief, but not for long. After weeks of disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, ceasefire hopes and stabilizing shipping conditions helped fuel a broad stock rally, while oil prices pulled back as investors grew more confident that supply disruptions would prove temporary. However, at the end of the weekend, tensions flared again in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring that the conflict’s end remains a question mark.
The inflation headline looked scary. The details reveal a lighter picture. March inflation jumped to 3.3%, but nearly three-quarters of that spike came from gasoline prices alone. Strip out energy and food, and underlying inflation rose just 0.2%, modest and well-behaved. That distinction is why the Federal Reserve feels comfortable staying on hold, and why markets were largely able to shrug off the numbers and keep climbing.
Companies are delivering on earnings. First-quarter earnings came out over the week and showed growth of 13.2% year-over-year, the sixth straight quarter of double-digit profit growth, with companies beating estimates by nearly 11%. The strongest results have come from Technology, Financials, and Materials, while Energy and Health Care have been more mixed. With the major indexes above their long-run averages, the market could be leaving little room for disappointment.
The Week Ahead
The central question heading into this week is whether conditions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to stabilize or deteriorate. A durable ceasefire would likely push oil prices lower and ease inflation concerns, giving the Federal Reserve more room to stay on hold. However, a continuation of renewed disruption could reignite energy prices and pressure central banks to keep rates elevated.
The other thing to watch in the coming week is whether strong earnings and economic data can continue to justify stock valuations. With the S&P 500 trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 21, above both its five-year and ten-year averages, the market is pricing in a lot of good news. More Q1 results are due this week, and with companies currently beating estimates by a double-digit margin, the earnings bar has been raised.
As always, know that we are keeping a close eye on the markets and are here to help you navigate whatever comes next. If you have questions about your portfolio or simply want to talk through what’s happening, don’t hesitate to reach out.
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U.S. markets posted their best weekly gain this year, with the major indexes all closing firmly in the green.
A fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire pushed oil prices and interest rates lower during the week, only to be driven up by threats of a blockade late in the weekend. Additionally, March’s inflation report showed that the recent price spike was driven mostly by energy costs.
The underlying data supports that view. Inflation outside of energy is contained, the job market remains on solid footing, and policymakers can afford to stay patient.
Below is a closer look at what drove last week’s moves and what to watch in the week ahead.
Stock Index Performance
U.S. equities posted broad-based gains this week:
What Moved Markets
U.S.–Iran ceasefire and blockade impacts. The news significantly reduced fears of a prolonged supply disruption. Brent futures hit their lowest in nearly a month at $90.40, reversing the spike that had pushed gasoline above $4.00 per gallon. Lower oil prices pulled interest rates down, and follow-up U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad added to the sense that the immediate threat has eased. However, over the weekend and into Monday, the United States has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after additional peace talks ended without a deal, serving as a stark reminder of how unpredictable this conflict and its impacts have become.
March’s inflation report brought welcome news. The recent price surge was almost entirely energy-driven, not a sign of broader inflationary pressure. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-over-year, its highest since mid-2024, but energy alone accounted for nearly three-quarters of that increase. Core inflation came in slightly below expectations at 2.6%, with prices falling in several categories, including medical care. Markets viewed it as confirmation of a temporary shock rather than evidence of a lasting inflation trend.
The Federal Reserve has every reason to stay patient. With oil prices falling and core inflation calm, bond markets rallied, and the 10-year Treasury yield drifted toward 4.3%, near a three-week low. The ceasefire triggered a sharp single-day drop in yields midweek as investors moved back into Treasuries. Currently, markets are not pricing in a cut for the next Fed meeting on April 28-29.
The Week Ahead
Earnings season gets underway with the big banks. Goldman Sachs reports on Monday, April 13, followed by a concentrated schedule on Tuesday and Wednesday, which includes JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley. These results will give investors their first real look at profit trends, loan demand, and credit quality for 2026. Management guidance will be watched closely for any signs that the economic outlook is shifting.
Tuesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be the week’s most important inflation release. After March’s energy-driven CPI surge, the PPI will show whether those higher costs are feeding through into broader business pricing. A stronger-than-expected read on either prices or growth could quickly shift expectations around Fed policy.
The weeks ahead may bring more volatility as earnings, inflation data, and geopolitical developments continue to drive sentiment. As always, I am watching closely and keeping an eye on the markets.
If you have any questions about your portfolio or would like to talk through your strategy, don’t hesitate to reach out. We are here to help.
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Last week’s holiday-shortened trading period was defined by tension between the ripple effects of the ongoing geopolitical conflict and surprisingly resilient domestic data.
Better-than-anticipated employment figures steadied nerves and revived the soft-landing narrative, even as elevated interest rates kept a ceiling on how far stocks could rally.
Beneath the surface, investors shifted toward quality companies and more defensive sectors, while rate-sensitive growth names stayed volatile.
Below is a look at the forces behind last week’s moves and what to keep an eye on in the coming week.
Stock Index Performance
All three major indexes posted solid weekly gains:
What’s Driving Markets Right Now
The Week Ahead
The primary focus will be on incoming inflation data, with the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index due Thursday, April 9. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the March meeting are set to be released on Wednesday, April 8, and will also be closely watched. Markets will be listening for any signal that policymakers view recent price pressures as temporary or persistent. Hotter readings would reinforce the higher-for-longer rate path; softer data would support the view that the economy is cooling gradually.
As the Q1 earnings season gets underway, attention shifts to what corporate America reports about demand, margins, and pricing power. Management commentary around energy costs, borrowing rates, and geopolitical disruptions will be just as revealing as the numbers, helping clarify whether recent volatility was a sentiment reset or an early signal of a more challenging path for equities.
The period ahead will likely test patience, as incoming inflation data, earnings reports, ongoing conflict, and Fed commentary keep markets unsettled. As always, know that I am watching the market and am here for you if you have any questions.
Broadly, if you would like to talk through changes to your portfolio or have any questions about your investment strategy, don’t hesitate to reach out. We are here to be a resource for you.
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March proved to be a turbulent month. Conflict with Iran sent oil prices skyrocketing, compounding inflation that was already proving hard to tame. Another big story from March was the March 17-18 Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. We saw the Fed hold rates steady and quietly raise its own inflation forecasts. The message was unambiguous: rate cuts are off the table for now.
The broader economy felt the strain. Consumer sentiment deteriorated noticeably, and the spending optimism that carried markets through much of 2025 wore thin. Stocks have sold off, and borrowing costs have climbed as caution replaced confidence.
Below is a look at how markets performed in March, what drove the numbers, and where the key signals point.
Major U.S. Stock Indices
Stocks retreated sharply in March, and the damage was not evenly distributed. What began as quiet consolidation near early-month highs gave way to a broad sell-off in the second half, as oil-driven inflation fears and geopolitical uncertainty prompted investors to pull back.
Across all three major indexes, news-driven swings around oil prices, the Iran conflict, and Fed expectations kept markets on edge, with large-cap growth stocks bearing the brunt of the selling.
What’s Driving Markets
Energy Shock: The New Macro Anchor. The conflict with Iran and the resulting disruptions to oil supply and shipping have made energy the dominant force shaping markets. In March, Brent crude surged more than 60%, a spike that hit households through higher gasoline and utility bills and forced investors to reassess virtually every asset class.
Inflation and the Fed: Caught in the Middle. The oil price jump arrived at an awkward moment. Inflation had been improving but had not yet returned to the Fed’s 2% target, and higher energy costs pushed it back up just as that progress was stalling. The Fed is in no hurry to cut, and markets that had been counting on rate relief will need to adjust to a longer wait (Schneider, 2026).
Growth and the Consumer: Thinner Buffers. Higher energy prices are affecting consumers and businesses simultaneously, while the economy is more vulnerable than it was when it entered 2026. Retail sales are cooling, confidence is eroding, and recession risk has risen. The more likely scenario is a slower, more fragile expansion; one where negative surprises carry more consequence than they would last year.
Markets and Risk Pricing: A Flight to Quality. Equity and credit markets are repricing in light of greater uncertainty and reduced support from the Fed. Economically sensitive stocks are under the greatest strain, while companies with strong finances and reliable earnings are proving more resilient. Rising longer-term rates are pushing up mortgage and loan costs, and credit markets are demanding higher returns for taking on risk.
The Bigger Picture: An Uneven Impact. The damage is never evenly distributed. An oil price surge of this magnitude tends to tighten global financial conditions, which weigh on emerging markets and multinationals with significant overseas revenues.
The Bottom Line
With a turbulent market, a good approach can be to maintain a diversified portfolio with a long-term view.
As we move into April, know that we are monitoring developments closely and that we are here for you if you have any questions. And as always, if you would like to review your portfolio, don’t hesitate to give us a call.
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Last week’s dominant narrative pitted a still-solid U.S. economy against persistent inflation pressures and continued geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. This was highlighted as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the March 17-18 meeting.
The ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has continued to rattle sentiment. Brent crude oil prices surged over the past week, but fell as the Trump Administration signaled a potential for resolution on Monday morning. Additionally, equities struggled to sustain any recovery, ending the week with a fourth consecutive weekly loss.
Here’s where we ended the week, and a look behind what’s driving the numbers.
Stock Index Performance
What Moved Markets
The Week Ahead
Preliminary March Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings on March 24 will reveal whether the economy is still expanding or starting to lose steam. Markets will focus on services activity, new orders, and prices paid. Any weakness could stoke recession fears, while a strong print keeps a tighter Fed narrative firmly in place.
The war in Iran continues to drive volatility, with traders sensitive to any escalation that pushes energy prices higher. Elevated oil isn’t just a headline risk. It hits corporate margins, consumer spending, and bond yields simultaneously, complicating the path forward for both growth and inflation.
It’s a noisy environment right now, and that’s exactly when having a long-term plan can matter most. With that said, please know we are here for you if you have questions about recent developments or would like to talk through your strategy. Don’t hesitate to give us a call.
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Last week, U.S. markets faced a difficult combination of forces: an oil shock from the war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a job market showing cracks, and inflation data that, while recently contained, is now under pressure from rising energy costs.
Stocks came in wounded from the prior week and stayed under pressure as oil swung sharply between $88 and $120 a barrel. The growing fear is that a prolonged supply disruption could drive energy prices meaningfully higher just as the economy softens.
Here’s how the major indices ended the week.
Stock Index Performance
Macro Snapshot
The Week Ahead
Between a Fed meeting, an active conflict reshaping global energy flows, and an economy sending conflicting signals, the week ahead will demand patience.
Know that we are watching the markets as they evolve. If you have questions about your portfolio or want to talk through any shifts, don’t hesitate to reach out. We are here as a resource for you.
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Last week brought two unwelcome surprises: a 35% spike in crude oil prices triggered by U.S. military conflict with Iran and a disappointing jobs report.
Stocks drifted lower, and volatility picked up as investors rotated out of higher-growth areas and into more defensive names like utilities, dividend payers, and select energy stocks.
The message from markets was cautious but not panicked. Slower growth, higher energy costs, and geopolitical risk are real headwinds, but a weaker economy could also give the Federal Reserve more reason to cut rates, which would eventually be a tailwind for investors.
Here’s a look at how the markets performed last week.
Stock Index Performance
The Story Behind the Numbers
The Week Ahead
The next few months will likely bring more volatility as markets look for clarity on three fronts: whether the job market continues to weaken, whether oil prices stabilize or climb further, and how the Fed responds. For long-term investors, staying diversified across sectors remains one of the most effective ways to manage through periods like this.
As always, we’re watching the market and are here to help keep you informed about the current financial climate. If you have any questions about your portfolio or would like to talk through these shifts, don’t hesitate to reach out.
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Did Something in This Update Spark Your Interest?
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