June 9, 2025
Last week brought the extension of a market rally and slightly stronger-than-expected jobs data, albeit with some indications of labor market cooling. Read on for a bite-sized summary of what you need to know.
Weekly Stock Index Performance
Major Indexes Extend Rally
- Major indexes have ascended more than 1,000 points, or about 20%, since their April lows, with the S&P recording its best month since late 2023 in May.
- On Friday, the S&P 500 closed above the psychologically important 6,000, following stronger-than-expected jobs data.
Jobs Data Strong With Signs of Cooling
- May jobs data, released last Friday, showed the addition of 139,000 jobs vs. 125,000 expected by Dow Jones economists. The unemployment rate remained historically low at 4.2%.
- However, March’s and April’s jobs numbers were revised lower, with the average number of jobs added from January through May now at the lowest number in 30 years, excluding recession years.
- Some economists noted continued resilience in the labor market, yet others expressed concern about “fissures” beginning to show.
Federal Reserve Considerations
- Amid President Trump’s continued push for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the market is pricing in no more than a 50% chance of a rate cut occurring before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
- The Friday jobs report is unlikely to change that expectation, as the data showed some cooling but no serious issues. Wage growth, which was higher than expected, may also be supportive of the Fed’s wait-and-see approach.
- The next Federal Reserve meeting will be June 17-18, and as of Monday morning, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 96.6% chance of rates staying the same at this meeting.
The Week Ahead
- May Consumer Price Index data will be released on Wednesday, and Producer Price Index data will be released on Thursday — offering an important window into the inflation picture amid concerns about the impacts of tariffs on inflation.
- U.S. and Chinese officials will be meeting this week in London for trade talks, following a temporary slashing of tariffs last month.
That’s it for this week’s update! If you’d like to explore any of these topics further or have any other questions or needs as the week unfolds, don’t hesitate to reach out.
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