Last week brought more sticky consumer inflation and a Fed message indicating a holding pattern on rate cuts, making it an opportune time to share an overview of what happened and what’s ahead. Read on for a bite-sized summary of what you should know.
Weekly Stock Index Performance
Major U.S. stock market indexes rose for the week ending 02/14:
Hot January Inflation
Fed & Interest Rates
Divided Shopping Carts
The Week Ahead
That’s it for this week’s update! If you’d like to delve into these topics further or have any other questions or needs as the week unfolds, don’t hesitate to reach out.
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Hope you enjoyed Super Bowl Sunday! Before the big game, markets digested news out of Washington at a frenzied pace last week, with tariffs being the talk of the town. Major U.S. equity indexes have healthily absorbed the data overall, given the sheer volume of the headlines. With so much happening in our world, here is a quick update.
Major Stock Indices
For the week ended 02/07/25, the large-cap S&P 500 fell by 0.24%, the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.06%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.54%.
Choppy Equities
Major U.S. stock indexes had plenty to digest last week, given the rollout of tariffs as the week began. Then, we saw the subsequent rollback of some of them. Major U.S. stock indexes responded to the news flow by trading lower at the beginning of the week, clawing back some of those losses, and ending with a whimper on Friday. The result was a choppy or sideways trading week.
Overall, given the uncertainty of the tariffs, stocks stayed resilient last week. S&P 500 market volatility ended the week marginally higher and close to the flatline, just like major stock market indexes, indicating mostly overall investor calmness in a sea of changes last week.
Mixed January Jobs Data
The big economic data last week was nonfarm payrolls for January, which came in lower than expectations, showing 143,000 jobs created in January. This was below the 169,000 forecasted by Dow Jones.
The sluggish growth in payrolls during January could be partially attributed to the California wildfires and employers sitting on the fence awaiting more certainty on the new administration’s policies. Yet, December and November payrolls were revised higher.
Translation: While the headline number was a bit weak, much of the data under the hood was solid.
Markets received the data well early in the trading session last Friday but gave up the gains as the day wore on, with planned reciprocal tariffs, souring consumer sentiment (more on that in a minute), and inflationary concerns weighing on the minds of market participants.
Somewhat canceling out the softer-than-expected jobs number, the unemployment rate declined by a tick to 4.0%, and hourly wages grew. The full employment report is here.
10-Year Note Yields Fall
While tariffs are perceived as inflationary, 10-year note yields last week did not reflect this perception.
Last week, 10-year yields dropped by just over eight basis points, settling the week near 4.487%. Given that the yield was above 4.85% leading up to the inauguration, this is quite a dip, even as the headlines scream inflationary pressures.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the president is more focused on keeping the 10-year yield low using fiscal policy than pushing for Fed rate cuts, as he did in his first term.
Earnings Growth
We are beyond the halfway point of Q4 earnings season. With 62% of S&P 500 companies having reported their Q4 results through 02/07, the blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 16.4%.
Should this growth rate be realized, it would represent the highest year-over-year earnings growth recorded by the index since the fourth quarter of 2021, according to data from FactSet.
Consumer Sentiment Dips
Friday’s nonfarm payroll report was perhaps unusually overshadowed by University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data last Friday, with a drop in the reading garnering plenty of attention.
The metric showed a dip to 67.8 versus expectations for a reading of 72.0, a decline from 71.1 in January’s reading. Perhaps this was not too much of a surprise given the nonstop tariff talk, but it is a big move nonetheless.
Year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations both surged from the consumer’s perspective, which led to a decline in market sentiment to end the week last week.
Could the consumer be overreacting to the tariff headlines?
Golden Age
Gold has continued to pile on the gains. Last week marked its sixth consecutive week of gains, driven by multiple factors. Some of these factors include continuing geopolitical tensions, robust physical demand, and a renewed outlook for inflation.
This Week: Powell, CPI
It’s time again for Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This time, the impacts of potential tariffs will be weighed with the consumer inflation data for January. Early expectations are for an annual increase of 2.9% in the headline number, which would match monthly expectations of a 0.3% rise (depending on rounding).
Core CPI (which excludes more volatile food and energy) will be watched closely this week. The last reading was 3.2% annualized (below expectations).
On top of the big CPI data release on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking at the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee.
Market watchers are anticipating Wednesday as a key day this week, followed by the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday. Although, with tariff talks and more policy change likely coming out of Washington, it ought to be another action-packed week each day,
The Takeaway
Financial markets have performed well thus far in 2025 despite uncertainties. And while some individual stocks may swing in a more volatile fashion than others, the diversified portfolio can be the ticket to minimizing market volatility (and yes, that includes bonds!).
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It has been quite an eventful month to start 2025, with no shortage of market-moving news and developments. As such, now is the perfect time to offer a quick overview of key events.
Month at a Glance
If the first month of the year is any indication of what 2025 will bring, we can expect resilience with some volatility sprinkled in across financial markets.
The surface narrative for January was to “see what the president does,” and there was plenty of action via executive orders and policy changes for political junkies to analyze.
After the inauguration early in the month, attention quickly turned to economic data while the action from Washington continued to dominate headlines. Sprinkle in earnings season and a Fed meeting at the end of the month, and we had quite an eventful month.
Overall, for the month of January, the S&P 500 ($SPX) increased by 2.70%, the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) rose by 2.22%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was higher by 4.70%.
Q4 Earnings Season
Let’s start with earnings since they are among the core fundamental drivers of equity pricing. Q4 earnings season is off to a promising start, and activity shifted into high gear in the last week of the month with some big tech showing their results.
During the final week of January, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla all reported earnings after the bell on the same day, and all three stocks came into and out of the earnings results nearly unscathed on somewhat mixed results.
Stocks reacted positively and ended higher on the session with these results, as investors eagerly awaited results from Apple after the bell.
Apple did not disappoint. While sales of iPhones missed the mark, services revenue more than made up for it in Q4, and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Tim Cook mentioned that sales were hotter in countries where Apple Intelligence is available, supporting the iPhone theme. Shares of Apple rose after the results.
Monthly Inflation Update
Producer Price Index (PPI): Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed that December prices rose by only 0.2%, lower than the 0.4% expected. This most recent data puts PPI at a 3.3% annual growth rate. We will take the small win!
Core PPI (which removes more volatile food and energy prices) stayed the same in December. This reading was below the expected 0.3% increase, which is also a positive sign. Core PPI now shows a year-over-year increase of 3.5%.
Central bankers watch Core PPI closely to assess price stability. This lower reading set a positive tone for the important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that was released the next day.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): CPI data showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, slightly above what was expected. This results in a 2.9% inflation rate compared to last year, up from 2.7% in November. The increase was driven by higher prices for energy, food, vehicles, car insurance, and airfare.
While this might seem concerning, the overall data contained encouraging details that markets loved to see. Core CPI (excludes food and energy) increased by just 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%. It is now at a 3.2% annual rate, which the markets reacted positively to.
Another point of interest was shelter pricing. For December, shelter prices rose by 0.3% from the previous month and saw a 4.6% increase compared to last year. This gain is the smallest yearly gain since January 2022 — three years ago. Since housing prices are among the most stubborn in inflation trends, this news was a positive sign for the markets, and major U.S. stock market indexes rallied hard on the day of the data release.
Scorching Hot Payrolls
December payroll data (January data release) showed that 256,000 jobs were created for the month, significantly higher than the expected 155,000. Typically, this would indicate a robust U.S. job market and suggest that a recession is not on the horizon, which would please investors.
However, this time, the market response was less favorable. The strong economic data led to decreased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the January meeting, and unchanged rates is what we got.
In addition, the unemployment rate fell by one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.1%, down from the previously reported 4.2% in November.
Recent commentary coming out of the January Fed meeting included the labor market is “in balance,” despite the smoking hot payroll number we saw for December.
We get our next look at the labor market on Friday, February 7th, with 154,000 jobs expected to have been created in January.
January Fed Meeting
During the final week of January, the Fed left rates unchanged as expected, keeping the federal funds rate at 4.25% – 4.50%.
The Fed statement included: “The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid,” the new statement read.
The statement also indicated that “inflation remains somewhat elevated.” and that the economy “has continued to expand at a solid pace.”
Notably, the Fed removed any mention of “progress on inflation” from the statement. So, the Fed is taking a less confident view on inflation.
The Fed decision day resulted in many investors not being in the buying mood, as major U.S. stock indexes fell during the session.
Interest Rates
Fortunately, interest rates chilled out a bit in January post-inauguration. The white-hot rise pre-inauguration caught a breather and to end the month. The 10-year yield settled near 4.569%, just about unchanged for the month as a whole (lower by 4/10 of a single basis point).
Investors seemed happy to take the other side of the pre-inauguration runup in rates by buying bonds after the event, taking 10-year yields from the near 4.80% level back down under 4.6%.
Bond vigilantes were the talk of the town during the runup in interest rates, and they have since been on the quiet side. Perhaps the emotionally charged fear of sharply higher rates under the new president was overdone, and investors found opportunity on the other side of the trade. Ah, fear and greed!
This leaves the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate near 7.05% on the last day of January according to Mortgage News Daily.
2-year yields ended January near 4.207%, down three and a half basis points on the month.
Deepseek AI Rattles Big Earnings Week
With markets already digesting plenty of change out of Washington and looking ahead to the biggest week of earnings in the final week of January, markets reacted to news of Deepseek before Monday’s market open.
The news of China’s Deepseek AI being produced for a fraction of the cost of OpenAI’s ChatGPT sent futures markets reeling overnight ahead of the opening bell for the final week of January.
Markets lost ground heavily that Monday, but many sectors recovered nicely for the most part as the week progressed via earnings and economic data. Chipmakers (notably NVIDIA) took a hit on the news.
Putting it Together
Yes, it has been a whirlwind of a month headline-wise — primarily via the transition of power in Washington — but looking at the monthly charts of major indexes, it just looks like a pedestrian bull market month.
That’s what is nice about charts and data; they remove emotions and noise.
What To Do?
So, here we are, in the present moment, with plenty of changes coming out of Washington as markets kick off the fresh year. So far, earnings season has been on the solid side, the labor market commentary from the Fed was constructive, and recent inflation data showed stickiness, resulting in pausing Fed navigating the unknown policies from the new administration.
As long-term investors, when the unknown or unexpected occurs (like Deepseek), these are the moments to remember the long-term plan. Volatility is always going to present itself in these markets, and it is crucial to remember the plan when volatility spikes.
Volatility Spikes?
On that note, volatility spikes in recent days and months have been mostly short-lived, and it seems that markets have gotten accustomed to that type of volatility digestion. That will not always be the case, and as investors we are mentally prepared for that.
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As we approach the end of the month, the U.S. financial markets are in for quite a week.
This week has it all: mega-cap tech earnings, the January Federal Reserve meeting, and market-moving economic data, all during the second week of a new administration. Lots of moving parts! Amid this all, it is important to remember the benefits of long-term investing, avoiding getting caught up in short-term market movements or volatility.
What are the markets telling us now, and what will this week bring? With so much activity, now is the right time for a quick update.
S&P 500: Best Start for a President Since 1985
U.S. stock market indexes were off to the races during the first week of the new presidential administration, with the broadest measure of the domestic economy, the S&P 500, having its best start for a president since 1985. It closed at an all-time high on Thursday of last week.
Tallying major stock indexes last week, the S&P 500 increased by 1.74%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.55%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week higher by 2.15%.
Q4 Earnings Season
Fourth-quarters earnings have been strong so far, especially in large banks. Big tech earnings are on deck this week. So, earnings rubber will meet the road.
According to data gathered by FactSet, the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises, as well as the magnitude of these surprises, is currently higher than their 10-year averages.
In what may be dubbed a potentially confusing earnings season, there will most likely be plenty of unrelated noise coming from Washington this week.
There are some forecasts for “fog” this week, which only makes sense given the sheer volume of data that will be digested, especially given the unknowns out of Washington.
Earnings will be the fundamental focus of the week for stocks, with other variables surely to be in play!
January Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting
The January Fed meeting is this week, with the decision on interest rates coming on Wednesday afternoon.
No surprises are expected regarding the benchmark overnight lending rate, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 97.9% probability that the Fed will keep the key overnight lending rate unchanged as of the market close on 01/24/25.
As usual, market participants (and algorithms) will immediately look for any subtle changes in language in the official Federal Open Market Committee statement at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell prepares for the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Unemployment Claims In Line / Flash Data In Line
Weekly new applications for unemployment claims were about as expected last week, coming in at 223,000 versus 220,000 expectations. However, continuing claims are at their highest level since November 2021.
So, unemployment is a mixed bag, and analysts will be paying attention to the continuing claims number. The early 2025 labor market picture is on solid footing overall.
The Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index’s (PMI) manufacturing and services data for January was mixed last week, with manufacturing growing again and services declining. The overall takeaway from the flash data was that 2025 got off to an optimistic start for business in general.
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “U.S. businesses are starting 2025 in an upbeat mood on hopes that the new administration will help drive stronger economic growth. Rising optimism is most notable in the manufacturing sector, where expectations of growth over the coming year have surged higher as factories await support from the new policies of the Trump administration, though service providers are also entering 2025 in good spirits.”
As January Goes
As we approach the end of January, the adage, “As Goes January, So Goes the Year,” comes to mind. This week will shape the monthly outcome, and there will be plenty of data to digest.
This Week: Busy / Chance of Dizziness
Fan of market-moving news and events? If so, this is your week.
This week is chock full of all kinds of events: earnings from mega-cap tech (from the likes of Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta), the final trading week of January, the January Fed Meeting, GDP data on Thursday, and Core PCE (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) on Friday. In addition, there will likely be nonstop headlines coming out of Washington (much like last week).
It’s sure to be an active week! Let’s be sure to stay disciplined and remember the long-term goal as the headlines come through at a flurried pace this week.
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Major U.S. stock indexes reacted positively to the improvement in Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data last week. Now, traders and investors look forward to this holiday-shortened trading week featuring the inauguration. Time for a quick update!
Tallying the week ending 01/17/25, the S&P 500 rose by 2.91%, the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 2.85%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 3.69%.
Major U.S. Equity Indexes
Major U.S. stock indexes were higher last week as they clawed back at the previous week’s declines, courtesy of bank earnings and improving Core CPI inflation data. Bond yields took a breather after their recent run higher.
Bank earnings were strong from several large players, showing earnings per share growth, with investment banking and trading activity alive and well.
Inflation Improvement
Markets needed a jolt after the previous week, and they got just that in the form of some tame inflation data.
Producer Price Index (PPI): First on the docket with a Wednesday data release, PPI data showed December pricing coming in less than expected, with a 0.2% monthly rise versus forecasts for 0.4%! This print puts PPI running at a 3.3% annual rate.
Adding to the PPI headline number was a light reading in Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy from the metric. Core PPI was unchanged in December, below expectations for a 0.3% monthly rise — also very nice. This reading makes it a 3.5% year-over-year rise.
Core PPI is widely watched by central bankers to gauge price stability. A miss of 3 ticks below expectations set the tone heading into the big CPI data reading the following day.
Consumer Price Index: Headline December Consumer Price Index data showed a monthly increase of 0.4% (a tick higher than expectations), equaling a 2.9% year-over-year inflation rate, up from 2.7% in November.
Energy, food, new and used vehicles, car insurance, and airline fares contributed to the increase. Although that might not sound good initially, there was positive market-moving data beneath the surface.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in below expectations, tacking on 0.2% for the month, a tick below expectations for 0.3%. Overall, the metric was running at a 3.2% annual pace, and markets loved it.
Widely watched shelter pricing, which showed some slight improvement in a previous reading, also pleased stock market bulls. For December, shelter prices rose by 0.3% monthly and saw an annual increase of 4.6% year over year — the smallest one-year gain since January 2022.
That was three years ago, and housing is one of the most stubborn segments in the inflationary saga. Markets loved to see it!
PPI, CPI Market Reaction
The PPI data release on Tuesday was cheered by traders and investors ahead of the NY stock market opening bell, as the S&P 500 rallied early. The early gains, however, were short-lived, as the S&P 500 could not maintain its gains for the session and finished slightly lower. The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming CPI data seemed to cause some anticipatory nerves.
However, those nervous feelings before the CPI data release were eased significantly after the data release on Wednesday, with major U.S. stock indexes posting substantial gains. The S&P 500 erased its losses for 2025 on this day, setting the tone for the rest of the week.
Why such a big move to the upside? At first glance, the CPI data may not have seemed to warrant such a big move. But algorithms moved fast and perhaps smelled some improvement in shelter pricing and core CPI pricing. In addition, market sentiment was perhaps a bit overstretched to the downside following the previous week’s payroll data and the big move in bond yields.
The CPI data seemed to reinvigorate (some) optimism about a 2025 rate-cutting Fed (at least for now).
Government Bonds & Fed
As major stock indexes rallied on inflation data last week, government bond yields fell in a much-needed pullback after the recent rise.
10-year note yields fell around 16 and a half basis points, finishing the week near 4.609%. Dovish-sounding comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller did not hurt either!
Probabilities show a 97.9% chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the January meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, March probabilities indicate a 27.0% chance of a quarter-point cut at the March meeting as of the market close on 01/17.
It felt like the bond vigilantes were away from the office during CPI week and the days leading up to the inauguration. Could the higher interest rate fear based on policy uncertainty have reached an extreme level, and cooler heads have come to prevail? It is too early to tell!
December Retail Sales Miss, Upward Revision
CPI had the bulls roaring, and December retail sales showed that the U.S. economy ended the year on solid footing.
While missing the 0.6% monthly growth estimate, December data showed a 0.4% gain, and November data was revised higher by 0.1% to a 0.8% gain. Strength was evident in car sales and furniture purchases.
So, December retail sales growth was lower than November and missed expectations, but combined with an upward revision to November data, markets liked it. Some outlets perceived it as excellent, yet other opinions exist.
The Takeaway
CPI and PPI data were the keys to last week’s rally across major U.S. stock indexes. Dovish Fed member commentary always helps things along. The positive inflation data was welcomed, easing the overly bearish sentiment from last week driven by rising bond yields.
Had the fear of higher rates amid the new administration policy uncertainty gotten too extreme heading into last week? Time will tell. During this holiday-shortened trading week for MLK Day, the new presidential administration begins.
This week is quiet for economic data releases, although we will get the weekly unemployment data and some flash manufacturing and services data. Markets will further digest last week’s key data in this short week. Let’s see how things shape up from there.
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The new year got underway with December payroll data coming in white-hot and recently released Fed Minutes showing inflationary concerns.
Given these and other recent developments, now is a good time to keep you updated about what happened last week.
Overall, U.S. stock market indexes declined for the week ending 01/10, as the S&P 500 decreased by 1.94%, the Nasdaq 100 traded lower by 2.24%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.86%.
Smoking Hot Payrolls
Hot off the presses, December payrolls came in hot, showing 256,000 jobs created for the month versus 155,000 expected. Normally, this would be a welcome indicator of a strong U.S. jobs market and a sign that recession is not an imminent risk, pleasing investors.
But this time, market participants weren’t too happy to hear the news, as the hot economic data translated to lower probabilities of a Fed rate cut at the January meeting.
In fact, the odds of a January rate cut from the Fed shrank to 6.4% as of last week’s market close, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The unemployment rate declined by one tick to 4.1% versus the previously reported 4.2% in November.
Fed Minutes: Inflation Warning
Inflation persists. That is no secret.
As you may know, the Fed recently indicated fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated for 2025.
Adding to the message, recently released meeting minutes from the December Fed conference showed that Fed officials are concerned about the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies on inflation, with at least four mentions of trade and immigration policy uncertainty.
“In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants indicated that the Committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing,” the minutes read.
One takeaway from the minutes was that most Fed officials were concerned about inflation risks — but not concerned enough to put rate hikes back on the table.
Equity Market Response
The S&P 500 was slightly higher (just barely) on the day of the Fed minutes release.
With the minutes showing nearly all Fed committee participants concerned about inflation risks, investors may have grown a bit concerned. However, equity markets stuck together well overall, as many are coming to grips that inflation uncertainty is alive and well.
After we got the minutes last Wednesday, traders eagerly anticipated Friday’s jobs data — and with such a hot print, major U.S. equity indexes sold off to end the week on Friday, resulting in moderately lower weekly settlement values.
U.S. Dollar Rally Continues
In a mostly “risk-off” style of trading last week, the U.S. dollar continued its recent rise against other major currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six other currencies.
Gold and silver rose along with the dollar last week. The spot price of gold rose by around 1.88% last week, settling around 4% lower than its all-time high made in October.
Spot Bitcoin (Coinbase) was lower by around 4.32% last week (as of late Friday evening). Spot bitcoin trades 24/7 on several different exchanges, and ETFs for spot bitcoin saw large inflows in their first year of existence.
Sometimes, a stronger dollar can impact gold and/or silver negatively, but that has not been the case lately. The safe-haven bid was alive and well last week.
Government Bond Yields Rise
Markets like certainty, and if they cannot have that, they look to bond yields for clues about the direction of the U.S. economy. Investors were quick to sell treasuries last week, and yields moved higher, with the U.K. in focus.
U.K. Impacts: Bonds selling off in the U.K. certainly added some selling pressure here at home. High levels of government debt have contributed to the UK’s 10-year gilt yield being at its highest since 2008. So, the rise in interest rates is currently seen as a global move, but it is being led by the U.K.
Treasury Yield Data: Overall, 10-year Treasury yields traded higher by around 18 basis points last week, settling near 4.775%. The recent weekly settlement value is the highest since October 2023, with 5.00% suddenly in view.
The recent key level high in 10-year yields was in April 2024, near 4.739%. Last week’s settlement was above this level.
Looking Ahead
The rising U.S. dollar, bond yields, and precious metals were evidence of safe haven buying last week. Will we get a substantial pullback in equity markets anytime soon? Last week, the S&P 500 settled approximately 4.5% lower than its weekly all-time closing high, so long-term investors could consider having some dry powder on hand in the event of a substantial pullback in the near future to take advantage of potential long-term opportunities.
For major economic data releases this week, we get Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and retail sales data. Markets will have more time this week to digest last week’s rise in bond yields, given the shortened trading week in observance of the late President Jimmy Carter.
Eyes will be on U.K. markets ahead of the U.S. opening bells this week with all hands on deck heading into the CPI data.
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Major U.S. equity indexes closed out the final month of 2024 in a mixed fashion, with megacap tech being the bright spot and industrials heading lower.
With so much happening courtesy of the Fed’s change in tone, it is the perfect time to update you on the final month of 2024 as we begin the new year.
No Santa Claus Rally in December
Santa Claus did not show up in rally mode at the end of December. We saw some quarter-end and year-end book squaring on the last couple of trading days of the month. Technically speaking, Santa had the first two trading sessions of the New Year as part of the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, so Santa was a mixed bag during the holiday season this time around.
Chatter and growth surrounding continued advancement in AI and now quantum computing dominate many growth-oriented conversations.
For December, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.50%, the Nasdaq 100 reached an all-time monthly closing high, settling higher by 0.39%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 5.27%.
The Dow experienced a historic 10-day losing streak, the longest since 1978. Will investors buy such a dip heading into the new year?
Stocks: Strong Year, Weak Month
It has been a wonderful two-year stretch in major U.S. stock indexes. In fact, the S&P 500 just delivered the best two-year stretch since 1998. The key is staying invested!
Through all the headlines, the interest rate cycling, elections, etc., long-term investors came out on top again.
It seems that some tariff concerns, interest rate uncertainty, jobs uncertainty, and a Fed seemingly slowing its rate cut campaign caught up to market sentiment a bit — and that only makes sense.
After all, markets do not go up in a straight line (last two years aside!). Pullbacks are often viewed as healthy in bull markets. Will we get a meaningful one anytime soon?
It is expected that AI will continue to garner attention heading into 2025, with several recent deals making headlines.
Rising Bond Yields
Generally, bonds were good to investors for much of 2024, but December changed that tune quickly with rising yields. Remember, yields have an inverse relationship with bonds.
With inflation being deemed stubborn and quite sticky on the consumer level, 10-year note yields responded in a big way in December, tacking on nearly 39.5 basis points and settling December near the 4.573% level.
So, it’s bye-bye low 4s for now, with uncertainty over future economic policy and a Fed with a more hawkish stance (or at least less dovish) heading into 2025.
With 5% being the cycle high so far after the Fed hikes in 2023, some may be asking if it is a good time to buy bonds. Well, that depends on many factors, like time horizon and type of bond, amid an uncertain outlook regarding inflation and interest rates in a new presidential administration.
Here’s why one analyst says it’s not time to give up on bonds. Of course, it’s important to remember that bonds are an important part of any well-diversified portfolio, even after an era of ultra-low interest rates.
Payrolls
Market participants were looking for a perfect number leading up to December’s significant jobs report, and they got what they wanted! The data was released before the December Federal Reserve meeting, however, where the Fed’s tone shifted regarding the direction of future monetary policy.
The jobs data released in December was deemed as Goldilocks-like, revealing an increase of 227,000 jobs, which exceeded the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 214,000. In addition, the October jobs figure was revised upward by 36,000 following a disappointing performance the previous month.
The data was interpreted as “just right” upon the release — neither too hot nor too cold, offering encouraging news for those anticipating a December Fed rate cut.
Recent job opportunities have seen notable increases in the health care, social assistance, and leisure/hospitality sectors.
Many are optimistic about the current labor market, which indicates economic growth without the risk of overheating. This type of scenario keeps the door open for potential future rate cuts by the Fed in the near term, although it looks like fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously thought.
The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in December in line with expectations.
Inflation
Consumer Inflation Increase: Well, the final phase of tackling inflation is taking longer than many would hope to see. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November showed a monthly increase of 0.3%, raising the annual rate to 2.7%, up from 2.6%.
Sectors like housing and services continue to drive inflation metrics higher, though shelter prices may be stabilizing. Despite CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, market reactions were optimistic, suggesting an increased likelihood of a rate cut in December, and the Fed delivered on that optimism.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.
Market Reaction: Major U.S. equity indexes reacted positively to the consumer inflation data upon release, but by week’s end, results were mixed, with the Fed signaling a shifting tone on interest rates for 2025.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 declined, while the Nasdaq 100 gained on the week of the CPI data release. Sentiment has been tempered somewhat since, and PPI data warranted additional caution.
Producer Pricing Hot: After a mostly in-line CPI report raised expectations for a December rate cut, the December PPI data release revealed stronger-than-expected wholesale prices.
The monthly increase was 0.4%, exceeding the Dow Jones estimate of 0.2%, while annual wholesale prices rose by 3.0%.
This uptick in prices was driven largely by food, with significant gains in pricing.
Fed Tone Pivot & Interest Rate Expectations
The Fed cut the benchmark overnight lending rate at its December meeting by 0.25% (25 basis points), bringing the target rate to 4.25%-4.50%, meeting market expectations. The move came after a 50-basis-point cut in September and a 25-basis-point cut in November.
However, the Fed indicated that it is looking at two interest rate cuts in 2025 versus the four that it had projected at the September meeting.
This shift to a potentially less-dovish Fed created a surge in volatility across financial markets, but it was rather short-lived as of the time of writing.
Fed Versus Inflation (Still!)
As January began, the feeling across markets was that we saw some year-end short-term profit-taking and book squaring across many assets. Markets could be overdue for a pullback after this recent runup. This could create opportunities for investors with cash on the sidelines. Quantum computing and AI will continue to garner investor attention.
Since market timing is so difficult to achieve, we will continue to stick to the plan of periodic investing across diversified portfolios that has worked so well over the last couple of years.
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Major U.S. equity indexes traded in a mixed fashion last week as investors interpreted fresh November consumer and wholesale pricing inflation data. Strength was featured in tech last week, with Broadcom making headlines on a deal struck with Apple to make chips designed for AI.
With fresh inflation data marking the first down week in four for the S&P 500, it is the perfect time to keep you updated on the latest developments.
For the week ending 12/13/24, the S&P 500 fell by 0.64%, the Nasdaq 100 was higher by 0.73%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 1.82%.
Inflation Picture
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Monthly Increase
The proverbial “last mile” in the inflation fight is proving to be longer than many would like to see. November CPI data was mostly in line with estimates, even as it showed a 0.3% gain for the month, bringing the yearly rate to a rise of 2.7% versus 2.6% in the previous reading.
Stubborn economic segments, including shelter and services, continue to contribute to sticky monthly inflation readings — but at least we see some deceleration in shelter pricing. Although CPI and PPI are still above the Fed’s 2% annual target, markets didn’t seem to mind too much last week, with the December rate cut probabilities rising after the data release.
November Core CPI (removes food and energy from the metric) also rose in line with estimates, showing a yearly 3.3% gain again, equating to a 0.3% monthly rise.
The verdict? Overall, recent monthly data may be construed as inflation being stuck in a range of sorts — certainly exhibiting a pattern of being down from the 2022 highs but still stubbornly above the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%.
While consumer inflation is not super low and continues to have sticky pockets, markets reacted mostly positively, as the probability of a December rate cut was virtually cemented after the data was released.
Producer Price Index (PPI): Simmering
After the mostly in-line CPI print on Wednesday raised the odds of a December rate cut and was received positively by equity markets overall, Friday gave us the November PPI data. Data showed wholesale pricing running hotter than expected in November, showing a monthly acceleration in producer pricing of 0.4%, higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 0.2%.
Looking at yearly data, wholesale pricing data for November increased by 3.0%. So, while consumer pricing was warm but in line with expectations, the wholesale pricing data was a bit hot. No victory laps on inflation as a whole just yet!
It’s the food – wholesale food pricing showed an outsized monthly gain that accounted for a large percentage of the gain in goods pricing.
Egg prices are approaching all-time highs made during the pandemic (not this again!). Bird flu was cited as the catalyst.
Treasury Yields Rise
As major stock indexes traded mixed for the week on rather warm overall inflation data, the 10-year Treasury yield rose every day last week. While expectations for a rate cut this week from the Fed are clear, rate cut aspirations for 2025 seem to be lessening as inflation is proving stubborn in the last mile.
Ten-year note yields rose by about 7.5 basis points last week, closing near 4.399% last Friday. The psychologically crucial 4.50% level is once again in sight.
Rate Cut Aspirations?
The December Fed meeting is this Wednesday, December 18th, and the markets are showing a 96.0% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut as of last week’s market close, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
But the outlook for 2025 is a bit different at this time. The thought process is that inflation has been sticky, resilient, and still above the Fed’s 2% target. Uncertainties about the new presidential administration’s policies and their potential impact on inflation naturally exist.
Some market watchers are talking about two rate cuts in 2025, but it is always difficult to predict what may happen so far in advance. A year is quite a long time in financial markets.
Given the freshness of last week’s inflation data, traders and investors will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-rate decision press conference on Thursday for additional clues or confirmations on the Fed’s mood.
Looking Ahead
Once again, it is all about the Fed this week. Markets have baked in expectations for a 25-basis-point cut, so barring any surprises, attention will be on the policy statement and clues surrounding future Fed inclinations.
Uncertainties surrounding future policies from a new administration exist, and inflation has been percolating. It is not apparent by the recent upward trajectory in most major U.S. stock indexes. Could the markets be a bit too relaxed at this time? Time will tell as we approach the end of the year.
December is historically a good month for stocks (especially during election years), yet we have had a heck of a run year-to-date. Let’s be mindful of any potential pullbacks that could create potential long-term opportunities as we approach year-end and the inauguration in January.
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Did Something in This Update Spark Your Interest?
Whether you’re a client or new to us, we’re here to help!
If you have questions or want to learn more, schedule a quick 15-minute call with a member of our team by clicking here.
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Links to third-party websites are for general information purposes only and do not constitute any offer or solicitation to buy or sell any services or products of any kind. The other parties are responsible for the content on their website(s). You are encouraged to read and evaluate the privacy and security policies on the specific site you are entering. They are not intended and should not be relied upon as investment, insurance, financial, tax, or legal advice.
Major U.S. equity indexes traded mixed, yet mostly higher last week courtesy of a “just right” monthly employment report, with tech leading the way throughout December’s first week of trading.
By last Friday’s close, here was the weekly tale of the tape: the S&P 500 tacked on 0.96%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 3.31%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week lower by 0.60%.
S&P 500 Record Weekly Closing High
Once again, the broadest measure of the U.S. economy, the S&P 500, closed on Friday at its highest weekly closing level of 2024, marking its third consecutive week of gains.
A good portion of equity market gains last week were centered around tech, while the recent trend of industrials leading the way took a breather. The technology sector has delivered robust earnings reports, boosting investor tech sentiment last week.
Counterbalancing the tech sector optimism was some sluggishness across industrials, energy, and utilities last week — perhaps with potential tariffs on the collective minds of investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has performed well compared to other major U.S. equity indexes recently, and a pullback can not be too surprising.
Noteworthily, NVIDIA Corp ($NVDA) replaced Intel Corp ($INTC) in the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average in November. So, NVIDIA in, and Intel out. In addition, recent developments at Intel brought a CEO departure. The once-dominating semiconductor player has seen better days.
Meanwhile, gains in Tesla Inc. ($TSLA), Meta Platforms, Inc. ($META), and Amazon.com Inc. ($AMZN) were on display during last week’s tech rally.
Overall, equity market bulls were on parade yet again, even as they were primarily waiting for Friday’s big jobs number. The November jobs number did not disappoint!
Smooth Jobs Report Favors Rate Cut
Market participants wanted to see a “just right” number heading into the big jobs number last week — and they got their wish!
Jobs data for November implied somewhat of a “Goldilocks” scenario, with November nonfarm payroll data showing a gain of 227,000 jobs versus the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 214,000. Adding to the optimistic November data, October jobs were revised upwardly by 36,000 after a very weak showing last month.
The data was interpreted as ”just right.” Not too hot and not too cold — somewhat perfect news for Fed rate cut bulls.
Recently created employment opportunities have been seen in the healthcare, social assistance, and leisure/hospitality fields, with all posting big gains.
Many folks are enthusiastic about the present labor market picture, showing signs of the economy experiencing growth but not overheating. This helps to keep the Fed’s pathway open to future rate cuts for the time being.
The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, in line with expectations.
Labor Data Market Reaction: Rate Cut Odds Rise
Markets reacted positively to the monthly labor market data, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded to the upside as a result last Friday, both reaching record highs.
As tech led the way last week, attention turned to December rate cut probabilities heading into Friday’s job number.
Heading into the key economic data drop of last week, probabilities of a rate cut at the December 18th meeting stood at less than 70%. Well, that shifted dramatically after the labor market data release, with implied probabilities spiking to 86% as of last Friday’s close.
The fresh labor market data gives rate-cut bulls more reason for cheer heading into the week before the December 18th Fed meeting.
Treasury Yields Lower, Quiet
Speaking of the Fed, last week was quiet for Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note yield dropping by around 2.7 basis points to finish the week near 4.15%.
2-year note yields were also on the quiet side and finished the week slightly lower, by around 5.7 basis points to close the week near 4.106%.
So, the 2/10 yield curve has thus far maintained its recently reacquired normalcy or “uninversion,” with the 10-year yield higher than the 2-year yield by around 4.4 basis points as of last week’s market close.
For now, calm yields are more than welcome for U.S. stocks as markets look to the December 18th Fed meeting. Let’s see how this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data affects bond yields and rate-cut probabilities over this week.
Inflation Data on Tap
With the big November jobs report out of the way, attention will turn to CPI data on Wednesday morning, followed by the Wholesale inflation (PPI) data on Thursday. The monthly consumer price index for November comes after four consecutive months of 0.2% month-over-month increases.
The monthly Consumer Price Index data has been trending lower since peaking in June 2022, when year-over-year consumer price increases ran at 9.1%. We have come a long way, but the recent four-month trend of higher ticks is on the minds of many.
Staying Grounded
Investors have been enjoying quite a run in several asset classes lately, and it is the perfect time to remind ourselves about staying grounded. Mastery of the long-term investing mentality features discipline and the same emotional mindset during all phases of market cycles.
That is why investing over time, instead of market timing, has been the secret sauce of long-term investors for decades and centuries.
Recently, we have observed appreciating prices in many risk assets on the higher-risk end of the spectrum, such as cryptocurrencies and meme stocks. Some are comparing it to the pandemic-era boom in some assets.
And that is ok! Many assets have a place in many investor portfolios. We just use discipline and time to our advantage to avoid overconcentration into any single individual asset or sector.
Putting It Together
Life can move fast; so can the financial markets. It has been a remarkable rally across several financial markets heading into and continuing after the presidential election.
Where have all the bears gone? It is fair to say that few people anticipated the magnitude of the stock market rally in November, which has continued into the beginning of December. As long-term investors, we welcome this rise in market sentiment! Adhering to our plan and strategy is the discipline that drives our success.
Expectations for another 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the December meeting are real and approached 86% probability as of last week’s market close. Folks will be tuned into CPI this week, as a softer-than-expected print could help top seal Fed rate cut expectations, while a higher-than-expected print could throw some uncertainty into the mix.
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Did Something in This Update Spark Your Interest?
Whether you’re a client or new to us, we’re here to help!
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Links to third-party websites are for general information purposes only and do not constitute any offer or solicitation to buy or sell any services or products of any kind. The other parties are responsible for the content on their website(s). You are encouraged to read and evaluate the privacy and security policies on the specific site you are entering. They are not intended and should not be relied upon as investment, insurance, financial, tax, or legal advice.
Pending elections, “higher” interest rates, and labor market questions, there was a bit of uncertainty heading into November.
But that uncertainty was short-lived. The presidential election was settled and the November Fed meeting was in the books by early November. And November was a fantastic month for long-term investors!
With the presidential election out of the way and market sentiment rocketing, now is the perfect time to keep you informed about the latest developments as we head into the final month of 2024.
Major Stock Indexes
November was good for long-term investors in U.S. stocks, with a continuing bid in U.S. equities leading up to and continuing after the presidential election. That makes it six out of the last seven positive months for the S&P 500 and eleven out of the previous thirteen — I think we will take that!
Overall, for the month of November, the S&P 500 added 5.73%, the Nasdaq 100 tacked on 5.23%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way — higher by 7.54%.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Rate Decision
November kicked off with the Fed policy meeting on November 7th, as the Fed cut the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points in line with market expectations, with the next day’s presidential election on everyone’s mind.
The recent decision follows the central bank’s significant 50 basis point cut in September and brings the current target lending rate range to 4.50% – 4.75%.
The vote for the rate cut was unanimous, with this action aiming to support the labor market. Additional data is needed for the Fed to assess the current state of inflation to determine policy action going forward.
As of market close on November 29th, markets favored another 25-basis-point cut (66% probability) at the December 18th meeting and a 34% chance of no change in rates, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Treasury Yields Fall
The widely monitored 10-year Treasury Note Yield declined moderately in November after rising in the previous month. It closed the month at a yield near 4.177% versus October’s closing level near 4.285%, a decline of just over 10 basis points month-over-month.
The slight dip in rates is good news for sidelined prospective mortgage borrowers — and great news for long-term investors in U.S. equities.
Cooler Jobs Market
November kicked off with the monthly labor market data on the first of the month. The October non-farm payroll data, released in November, showed only 12,000 jobs were created, and the job totals for August and September were revised downward by a combined 112,000. This was not encouraging for the labor market, but it may be viewed as good news for those anticipating interest rate cuts.
Although the reported job creation figure was significantly lower than expectations, it seems that the actual expectations were much more subdued than the numbers would imply. The low number of jobs created for the month, the weakest since 2020, was heavily anticipated due to the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which had a considerable effect on the labor market.
Despite the disappointing data, major U.S. equity indexes performed well on the day of the report’s release, with the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 all showing gains on the daily trading session. November jobs data will be released on December 8th.
Inflation Rather Mixed in November
According to metrics released at the end of November, inflation remained mostly unchanged in October.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Data showed a monthly increase of 0.2% for October, which matched consensus expectations. This resulted in a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.6%, slightly higher than the previous month’s reading of 2.4%. While the numbers align with expectations, they indicate a persistent inflationary environment.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose as expected, increasing by 0.3% for the month and maintaining an annual rate of 3.3%.
A significant factor contributing to the monthly rise in inflation was shelter costs (again!), which accounted for more than half of the increase. In October, shelter prices rose by 0.4% from the previous month and experienced an annual increase of 4.9%. Despite an overall stabilizing inflation environment, shelter prices remain high.
Overall, the CPI data can be interpreted as aligning with expectations; however, it also demonstrates some stubbornness, as it showed a rise from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October.
Major U.S. stock indexes experienced slight gains in the morning following the data release amid reinforced expectations for a 25-basis-point decrease at the December meeting. On the day of the data release, the likelihood of such a rate cut rose to approximately 82%.
Producer Price Index (PPI): The day after the Consumer Price Index (PPI) was released, wholesale prices showed a rise of 0.2% in October, matching Dow Jones estimates. Similar to the Consumer Price Index, this wholesale inflation data came in as expected; however, it still marked an increase from the previous month’s reading.
November Inflation Verdict: Inflation is in line with expectations, but concerns about rising prices persist for many. Shelter costs continue to be stubborn. The general consensus is that the most recent inflation readings are somewhat supportive of a rate cut in December.
Consumer Health
Consumer confidence surged in November, fueled by a swift and decisive election outcome and indicating expectations of easier times ahead for consumers. The index rose to 111.7, its highest level since July 2023 and a 16-month high.
Retail sales beat estimates in October (November data release), while September retail sales data was revised sharply higher. The consumer has remained remarkably resilient throughout the last several years, and it appears that sentiment is growing.
Early Black Friday data shows a 3.4% annual rise in brick-and-mortar and online spending. This is a trend we have gotten used to in recent years, and we will see what Cyber Monday data looks like once it becomes available.
We, the consumer, drive the economy at the end of the day! It is easy to lose sight of this fact with so many headlines and market noise. The consumer has been unbelievably resilient for a prolonged period.
Relaxed Markets
Short-term market volatility subsided impressively in November, with the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index falling to levels not seen since July of this year.
When S&P 500 volatility decreases, it indicates a reduction of investor fear in the marketplace, leading to a decline in the price of S&P 500 put options. Many portfolio managers use these put options to hedge against market risk. And throughout November, the demand for them was weak, suggesting increased market confidence.
Some investors also monitor the CNN Fear and Greed Index to assess overall investor sentiment. While short-term market sentiment isn’t a primary concern for most long-term investors, it can be beneficial for those who utilize dollar-cost averaging strategies.
Looking Ahead
As we approach the end of the fiscal year, remember to consult with your tax advisor should you need to make any year-end moves in your portfolio to ensure optimal tax treatment. Long-term investing continues to be the ticket.
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Did Something in This Update Spark Your Interest?
Whether you’re a client or new to us, we’re here to help!
If you have questions or want to learn more, schedule a quick 15-minute call with a member of our team by clicking here.
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Links to third-party websites are for general information purposes only and do not constitute any offer or solicitation to buy or sell any services or products of any kind. The other parties are responsible for the content on their website(s). You are encouraged to read and evaluate the privacy and security policies on the specific site you are entering. They are not intended and should not be relied upon as investment, insurance, financial, tax, or legal advice.
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