July 21, 2025
Last week brought mixed monthly inflation data and various interpretations, while retail sales surged as earnings season began. So, now is an opportune time to share an overview of what happened and what could be ahead. Read on for a bite-sized summary of what you should know.
Weekly Stock Index Performance
- The S&P 500 rose by 0.59%.
- The Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.25%.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearly flat, lower by 0.07%.
Mixed Inflation Interpretation
- Consumer inflation was mixed overall for June. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) metric showed a 0.3% monthly increase, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7%, in line with expectations.
- Core inflation (which excludes more volatile food and energy) rose at an annual rate of 2.9%, in line with expectations.
- The data had a little bit for everyone. Some may say that inflation is low, and that rates should be cut, yet others will note that the annual inflation rate is still far ahead of the Fed’s target of 2%.
- Wholesale pricing (PPI) was unchanged in June versus expectations for a 0.2 % rise, bolstering those making the “inflation is low” argument.
Retail Sales & Consumer Sentiment Bounce
- Retail sales moved higher in June, posting a 0.6% monthly rise versus 0.1% economist expectations — a far cry from the previous month’s data print of a 0.9% decline.
- Some food for thought here, though: the retail sales numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so some of the increase could be partially attributed to higher prices resulting from tariffs.
- As tariffs materialize, however, consumers are feeling more optimistic, with June’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading showing a five-month high.
The Week Ahead
- It’s a quiet start to the week, economic data-wise. The second quarter earnings season is underway, and the results so far have been positive.
- We do get some flash manufacturing and flash services data too. Market watchers will be paying attention, as these offer good early snapshots of the health of the economy.
That’s it for this week’s update! If you’d like to delve into these topics further or have any other questions or needs as the week unfolds, don’t hesitate to reach out.
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